The Timeline, 1986-1999

Chernobyl

Reactors 3 and 4 at Chernobyl both melt down. The release is several times larger than the real disaster, and the plume reaches far deeper into Ukraine, Belarus and Europe.

In our world: Only reactor 4 exploded.

Pripyat evacuated

Pripyat, the city of the plant's workers, is evacuated in a matter of hours. Its people are told they will be home in three days.

Forsmark raises the alarm

Sweden's Forsmark plant detects fallout on its own workers and traces it east. The West realises something terrible has happened inside the USSR.

Moscow denies everything

The Kremlin flatly denies any incident. There is no statement, no apology and no call for help.

In our world: Moscow issued a short admission on television that evening.

The blackout

A total information blackout falls on Ukraine and Belarus. Even the republics' own governments are not told the scale. Anyone showing symptoms is "relocated" - and not heard from again.

Slavutych

Because the fallout is so much heavier, Slavutych is ordered built at once as an emergency settlement for the evacuated plant workers.

In our world: Decided in October 1986 and finished in 1988.

Spain leaves NATO

Spain's NATO referendum, postponed from March, is held as fallout spreads across Europe. Fear of nuclear war and anger at the secrecy swing the vote to No, and Spain walks out - the first crack in the alliance.

In our world: Held on 12 March 1986; Spain voted to stay.

The pits

Hospital patients with radiation symptoms are secretly executed and buried in pits outside the new settlements, so that no one will ever count the sick.

The truth from abroad

Radio Liberty, the BBC and the Voice of America reach Ukraine with fallout readings and satellite images. Local officials learn the truth from the West, not from Moscow - and stop trusting Moscow.

The Slavutych massacre

Children outside Slavutych find a mass grave of executed hospital patients, still in their gowns. The town riots: the administration building is burned, and the local police join the crowd.

The Battle of Slavutych

Soviet troops are sent in. A Ukrainian-majority unit under the old war hero Ivan Kozhedub is ordered to arrest the civilians - and opens fire on the Soviet troops instead. The rebellion has begun.

The rebellion spreads

From Slavutych the rising spreads across Ukraine and Belarus. Garrisons mutiny and republican officials side with the rebels, while the Soviet Army is still trapped in Afghanistan.

The Warsaw Pact breaks

With the Soviet Army tied down at home, East Germany, Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia walk out of the Warsaw Pact. Nobody comes to stop them.

In our world: The Eastern Bloc fell in 1989.

The Baltic War

Lithuania declares independence, then Latvia and Estonia. Rather than wait for Moscow's permission, all three enter the war on the side of Ukraine and Belarus.

In our world: Lithuania declared independence, peacefully, on 11 March 1990.

The Caucasus leaves quietly

Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan break away peacefully: Moscow can't spare the troops to stop them. With no violent collapse there are no breakaway wars - Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh stay inside Georgia and Azerbaijan.

In our world: They left in 1991, amid wars over Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The Romanian Civil War

Ceaușescu tries to hold on by force and Romania splits. The democratic faction, backed and armed by the United States, takes the cities of the north.

In our world: The revolution lasted ten days in December 1989.

Bulgaria leaves

Bulgaria leaves the Eastern Bloc, the last of Moscow's European allies to go.

Germany reunifies

East and West Germany reunify, three years earlier than anyone had dared hope.

In our world: 3 October 1990.

Transylvania joins the revolution

Transylvania throws in its lot with the revolution for a promise of greater autonomy - the seed of the Romanian Union.

The Siege of Bucharest

The democratic forces push the regime south until Bucharest itself is surrounded.

Christmas Eve

Ceaușescu is executed on Christmas Eve, and the civil war ends.

In our world: 25 December 1989.

The Securitate goes underground

Remnants of Ceaușescu's secret police refuse to surrender and form an underground resistance. They will wait for their moment.

The Soviet Union collapses

Beaten in Ukraine, bled in Afghanistan and abandoned by its allies, the USSR collapses and a provisional government takes over in Moscow. Russia inherits the Soviet seat at the UN and little of its strength; Ukraine keeps a share of the nuclear arsenal and the Black Sea Fleet.

In our world: Dissolved on 26 December 1991.

Kaliningrad and Transnistria go their own way

Cut off from Russia by an independent Lithuania, Kaliningrad declares itself a republic and makes the old Baltic Fleet base a free port. On the Dniester, Transnistria declares independence - and keeps it.

Moldova joins Romania

Moldova joins Romania as an autonomous state, on the same terms as Transylvania. The country becomes the Union of Romania and Moldova: the Romanian Union.

The attack on the Yugoslav parliament

A Kosovo Albanian carries out a terrorist attack on the Yugoslav parliament in Belgrade. Milošević has his pretext.

President Kozhedub

Ivan Kozhedub, hero of the Battle of Slavutych, is elected the first President of independent Ukraine.

In our world: Leonid Kravchuk was elected on 1 December 1991.

Bosnia declares independence

Bosnia and Herzegovina is the first to leave Yugoslavia.

Croatia, Slovenia and Macedonia leave

Croatia, Slovenia and Macedonia declare independence on the same day.

Yeltsin

Boris Yeltsin is elected President of Russia.

In our world: 12 June 1991.

War in Kosovo

War breaks out between Yugoslavia and Kosovo, with Albania behind the Kosovars.

Ethnic cleansing

Yugoslav forces begin ethnic cleansing in Kosovo. Columns of refugees cross into Albania and Macedonia.

Croatia and Slovenia at war

Six months after independence, Croatia and Slovenia go to war with Serbia.

Albania and Bosnia intervene

Albania and Bosnia send their armies into Kosovo to stop the cleansing, and the Yugoslav wars become a regional war.

Ichkeria

Chechnya declares independence as the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria.

Croatia against Bosnia

War breaks out between Croatia and Bosnia over religious and ethnic tensions.

Iraq invades Kuwait

Saddam Hussein's army overruns Kuwait in two days.

An uneasy coalition

A US-led coalition forms against Iraq, but it is an uneasy one:

• Europe's attention is on the Yugoslav wars on its doorstep.
• Turkey refuses the coalition its bases unless NATO votes unanimously to intervene in Yugoslavia. That vote never happens.
• France commits a large force, and Germany sends combat troops abroad for the first time since 1945.

In our world: Germany sent no combat troops.

Resolution 678

UN Resolution 678, authorising force against Iraq, passes narrowly. Yeltsin's Russia, now holding the Soviet seat, abstains - and so does China.

In our world: The USSR voted in favour.

Desert Storm

The coalition's air campaign against Iraq begins.

Israel strikes back

Iraqi Scuds hit Israel, and this time Israel retaliates. Syria pulls out of the coalition, Egypt and Saudi Arabia threaten to follow, and Washington scrambles to hold it together.

In our world: The US persuaded Israel not to retaliate.

The ground war

The ground war lasts weeks instead of a hundred hours, and Iraq uses chemical weapons on coalition troops on a small scale. French and German units take heavy losses, resentment of the Americans builds, and the coalition starts to split.

In our world: The ground war lasted 100 hours.

A victor's ceasefire - for Saddam

Kuwait is liberated, but coalition deaths run into the thousands. Saddam is seen as the victor and stays in power with Russian economic backing, and Russia vetoes a UN resolution condemning his chemical weapons. Moscow goes on to guarantee Iraq's independence.

In our world: About 300 coalition deaths.

The rift

The aftermath sours relations between America and Europe. European papers accuse Washington of tricking Europe into what it promised would be an easy war, and Europe starts to doubt American leadership. Britain sticks with Washington - and opens a split with its European partners.

The First Chechen War

Russia invades Ichkeria to bring Chechnya back. It cannot.

The Velvet Divorce

Czechoslovakia splits peacefully into the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

The intervention

A NATO summit fails to agree on intervening in Yugoslavia. The USA, the UK, Canada, Turkey and Norway go in anyway, with ground troops and a bombing campaign. France, Germany and Italy condemn it at the UN.

Greece and Turkey clash

On opposite sides in Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey begin border clashes - while both are still members of NATO.

"Washington's poodle"

Relations between Britain and Europe collapse over Yugoslavia. London accuses France, Germany and Italy of abandoning the Bosnians; Paris and Berlin call the intervention illegal and Britain "Washington's poodle". EU summits break down into open hostility.

Lukashenko's coup

Alexander Lukashenko seizes power in Belarus and brings back the old order: the red flag, the planned economy and the secret police. Belarus becomes Europe's last communist dictatorship - and stays out of Moscow's CIS.

In our world: Lukashenko was elected that year.

Greece and Turkey walk out

American mediation between Athens and Ankara backfires, and both leave NATO.

An Anglo-American peace

The Yugoslav wars end with a peace brokered by the United States and Britain. France and Germany are left out of the talks, and Milošević stays in power in Belgrade.

In our world: The Dayton Agreement was signed in Paris with every major power involved.

The end of NATO

NATO collapses, its credibility destroyed by the split over Yugoslavia, humiliation at the UN and casualties far beyond our world's. It is left as the USA, the UK and Canada - and even that is shaky.

Britain votes Leave

Under pressure from Eurosceptics and the press, Major's government calls a referendum on EU membership. With feeling about Yugoslavia still raw, Leave wins.

Blair

Tony Blair wins the general election, as in our world. Pro-Remain himself, he promises to honour the referendum and carry out the exit - a decision that hangs over his whole term.

Hong Kong stays British

The handover of Hong Kong never happens. Britain, outside Europe and bound ever closer to Washington, keeps the colony, and the Union flag still flies over Victoria Harbour - a standing grievance in Beijing.

In our world: Handed to China on 1 July 1997.

Putin

Vladimir Putin becomes Prime Minister of Russia.

In our world: 9 August 1999.

The Second Chechen War

Russia goes back into Chechnya. The war is still being fought in 2000.

The Treaty of Amsterdam

The Treaty of Amsterdam is signed while the UK, already on its way out, sits out the talks. With no British veto, it creates a common foreign policy and puts defence policy under the EU.

In our world: The UK held these back.

Japan repeals Article 9

With NATO down to three, Washington wants a real ally in the Pacific and presses Tokyo to rearm. The Diet passes Prime Minister Hashimoto's amendment repealing Article 9, and a referendum ratifies it on Constitution Day, 3 May 1998. Two years of rearmament follow; the forces keep the name Self-Defence Forces - for now.

Yeltsin resigns

Yeltsin resigns on New Year's Eve and Putin becomes acting President. He wins the presidential election in 1998, promising to restore order.

In our world: Yeltsin resigned on 31 December 1999.

Britain leaves the EU

The United Kingdom formally leaves the European Union. No legal exit mechanism exists yet (it came in 2009), so the exit is negotiated as a one-off, like Greenland's departure in 1985.

The euro

The euro launches on its real date - but with a joint economic government and a shared budget instead of loose coordination.

The Cologne summit

At Cologne the EU replaces what's left of NATO in Europe with a European Defence Union and a standing joint force, led by Germany with France, Italy and the Low Countries.

In our world: Cologne launched a much weaker defence policy.