Transnistria

Russia wants back what it lost in 1988, one land at a time: Ukraine's east and Crimea, Belarus, Kaliningrad, Transnistria, Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Narva, Latgale, a corridor through Lithuania and northern Kazakhstan.

The steps, at least a year apart: Compatriots (our stability falls), the Gas Weapon (give in, or hold out and risk an Energy Crisis), Little Green Men (Russia gains claims and our state is destabilised) and finally a Referendum or Union Treaty. A referendum or union is only accepted by a land that is weak, at war with Russia or gave in to the gas weapon: keep your stability up and do not give in.

Demands: once Russia's track has reached the gas weapon it can demand one state at a time. Cede it, refuse (Russia gains a war goal) or appeal to the West, which backs you with a guarantee or makes you give way.

Russian Provocation is your shield: every Russian step raises it. At 25 the West sanctions Russia; at 50 every land Russia wants is guaranteed by the West; at 75 a Russian war lets the Defence Union or NATO intervene.

Gas: if Russia cuts you off you suffer an Energy Crisis (consumer goods up, stability and factory output down). The Energy Security decisions - Emergency Rationing, Fill the Storage, Reverse Flow From the West, An LNG Terminal, Nuclear and Coal - lift it over months. Prepare before the cut, not after.